Dinamo Moscow 3–2 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moscow

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

PFC Sochi

M. Ngamaleu 90+5'

Bitello 85'

K. Tyukavin 53'

I. Saavedra 90'

S. Guarirapa 83'

5/5/2024

Premier League · Round 27VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Moscow59%

×Draw21%

PFC Sochi20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo MoscowExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.15

Dinamo Moscow

2.11

PFC Sochi

1.15

Dinamo Moscow creates 83% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

2.16

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow

2.16

PFC Sochi

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow

1.29

PFC Sochi

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw

80%

Dinamo Moscow or PFC Sochi

79%

Draw or PFC Sochi

41%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

36%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

35%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

68%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

32%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

75%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.16 + PFC Sochi defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.11

PFC Sochi attack 1.00 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more

59%

level

21%

PFC Sochi scores more

20%

Dinamo Moscow at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

K. Tyukavin

Dinamo Moscow · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Milan Majstorović

13'

Fabián Balbuena

53'

K. Tyukavin↳ S. Parshivlyuk

57'

Dmitri Chistyakov

59'

A. Yusupov← A. Sutormin

76'

D. Skopintsev← S. Parshivlyuk

76'

Y. Attiat-Allah← A. Makarchuk

76'

Miguel Silveira← S. Córdova

77'

M. Ngamaleu← J. Carrascal

79'

T. Margasov← K. Zaika

83'

S. Guarirapa↳ A. Jukić

85'

Bitello↳ M. Ngamaleu

87'

Bitello

89'

N. Marichal← L. Chávez

90'

I. Saavedra

90+5'

M. Ngamaleu↳ E. Dasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoPFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

23Total Shots13

7Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots13

7On Target5

10Off Target7

6Blocked1

17Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

410Total Passes541

316Accurate Passes446

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3