FC Sochi 1–1 Dynamo: Result & Stats

FC Sochi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo

8/10/2025

Premier League · Round 4Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Sochi26%

×Draw24%

Dynamo50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SochiExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.70

FC Sochi

1.15

Dynamo

1.70

Dynamo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.11

creates per match

1.57

1.83

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

FC Sochi

1.11

Dynamo

1.57

allows per match

FC Sochi

1.83

Dynamo

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw

50%

FC Sochi or Dynamo

76%

Draw or Dynamo

74%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+

10%

Dynamo wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals

68%

FC Sochi 2+ goals

32%

FC Sochi 3+ goals

11%

Dynamo 1+ goals

82%

Dynamo 2+ goals

51%

Dynamo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)

34%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.11 + Dynamo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dynamo attack 1.57 + FC Sochi defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Sochi scores more

26%

level

24%

Dynamo scores more

50%

Dynamo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff