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FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
7/25/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Fisht Olympic Stadium
Big match
55%
FC Sochi
model favours
55%25%20%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Sochi55%
×Draw25%
Arsenal Tula20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.58
Arsenal Tula
0.83

FC Sochi creates 90% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
2.00
Arsenal Tula
0.92

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.74
Arsenal Tula
1.16

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
80%
FC Sochi or Arsenal Tula
75%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
45%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
29%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
79%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
47%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
21%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
56%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
20%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
74%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 2.00 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Arsenal Tula attack 0.92 + FC Sochi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Sochi scores more
55%
level
25%
Arsenal Tula scores more
20%

FC Sochi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Sochi win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sochi
DLWDD
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Sochi face Arsenal Tula (First League)

First League returns with FC Sochi hosting Arsenal Tula. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Sochi host Arsenal Tula at Fisht Olympic Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.