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FC Slutsk vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Premier League 2018

FC Slutsk
FC Slutsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
9/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

FC Slutsk25%
×Draw26%
Shakhter Soligorsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Slutsk
0.98
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.46

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

creates per match

FC Slutsk
1.08
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.52

allows per match

FC Slutsk
1.39
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88

finishing

FC Slutsk+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Slutsk ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Slutsk or draw
52%
FC Slutsk or Shakhter Soligorsk
74%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
75%

Winning margin

FC Slutsk wins by 2+
9%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Slutsk 1+ goals
62%
FC Slutsk 2+ goals
26%
FC Slutsk 3+ goals
8%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
77%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
43%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Slutsk (draw refunded)
34%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Slutsk at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Slutsk attack 1.08 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + FC Slutsk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Slutsk scores more
25%
level
26%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
48%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Slutsk 0–0 Shakhter Soligorsk

FC Slutsk and Shakhter Soligorsk drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Slutsk.