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FC Sion vs FC Luzern — Super League 2018

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Luzern
FC Luzern
2/7/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion41%
×Draw24%
FC Luzern35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.57
FC Luzern
1.43

FC Sion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.54
FC Luzern
1.62

allows per match

FC Sion
1.23
FC Luzern
1.60

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more
FC Luzern+0.04on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Luzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
65%
FC Sion or FC Luzern
76%
Draw or FC Luzern
59%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
20%
FC Luzern wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
79%
FC Sion 2+ goals
46%
FC Sion 3+ goals
21%
FC Luzern 1+ goals
76%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
42%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
54%
FC Luzern (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.60 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Luzern defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Luzern attack 1.62 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Sion scores more
41%
level
24%
FC Luzern scores more
35%

FC Sion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
K. HajriziFC SionFC Sion · D
8.5

Match Events

18'
Bung Meng Freimann
35'
Lars Villiger
50'
Pius Dorn
68'
L. Diack← A. Kabacalman
68'
J. Lukembila← T. Berdayes
68'
B. Kololli← L. Chipperfield
70'
O. Kabwit← J. Von Moos
77'
Nias Hefti
79'
Lucas Silva
82'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi
82'
A. Grbic← L. Villiger
89'
L. Winkler← T. Abe
89'
S. Karweina← M. Di Giusto
90+1'
Marquinhos Cipriano
90+1'
Adrian Grbić
90+2'
A. Llukes← Y. Chouaref

Possession

50%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots16
3Corners4
14Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots16
3On Target2
5Off Target9
4Blocked5
8Inside Box12
4Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
388Total Passes380
296Accurate Passes301
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards5
0Offsides2

Super League: FC Sion 0–0 FC Luzern

FC Sion and FC Luzern drew 0-0 in Super League on February 7, 2026.

FC Sion controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.