FC Sion 4–2 FC Luzern: Result & Stats

FC Sion

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

FC Luzern

I. Chouaref 89', 18'

J. Löfgren 61' (OG)

D. Sorgić 2'

T. Klidje 59', 49'

11/10/2024

Super League · Round 14Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion41%

×Draw24%

FC Luzern35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SionExpected goals in this matchFC Luzern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.43

FC Sion

1.57

FC Luzern

1.43

FC Sion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

1.54

creates per match

1.62

1.23

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC Sion

1.54

FC Luzern

1.62

allows per match

FC Sion

1.23

FC Luzern

1.60

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more

FC Luzern+0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Luzern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw

65%

FC Sion or FC Luzern

76%

Draw or FC Luzern

59%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+

20%

FC Luzern wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals

79%

FC Sion 2+ goals

46%

FC Sion 3+ goals

21%

FC Luzern 1+ goals

76%

FC Luzern 2+ goals

42%

FC Luzern 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)

54%

FC Luzern (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Luzern away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.60 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Luzern defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Luzern attack 1.62 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Sion scores more

41%

level

24%

FC Luzern scores more

35%

FC Sion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

I. Chouaref

FC Sion · F

9.9

Match Events

2'

D. Sorgić↳ L. Chipperfield

18'

38'

45+1'

46'

46'

A. Grbic← L. Villiger

46'

K. Spadanuda← P. Dorn

46'

V. Vasić← P. Loretz

46'

D. Ulrich← A. Cigaņiks

49'

T. Klidje↳ A. Stanković

56'

Joel Schmied

59'

T. Klidje↳ A. Grbic

61'

J. LöfgrenOwn goal

71'

M. Bouriga← D. Sorgić

71'

C. Souza← L. Chipperfield

77'

T. Bouchlarhem← T. Berdayes

84'

J. Kronig← A. Kabacalman

86'

Severin Ottiger

89'

I. Chouaref

90+3'

Timothy Fayulu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

49%Possession51%

19Total Shots7

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.92

3Corners3

15Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots7

10On Target5

7Off Target2

2Blocked0

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

393Total Passes415

299Accurate Passes322

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0