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FC Luzern vs FC Sion — Super League 2018

FC Luzern
FC Luzern
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
FC Sion
FC Sion
A. Grbic 61'
N. Sow 23' (OG)
B. Freimann 3'
L. Chipperfield 90'
W. Boteli 80'
B. Kololli 49' (pen)
10/4/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Swissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

FC Luzern43%
×Draw24%
FC Sion33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Luzern
1.63
FC Sion
1.42

FC Luzern creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Luzern
1.84
FC Sion
1.44

allows per match

FC Luzern
1.40
FC Sion
1.41

finishing

FC Luzern+0.19scores more
FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Luzern ↓

FC Sion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Luzern or draw
67%
FC Luzern or FC Sion
76%
Draw or FC Sion
57%

Winning margin

FC Luzern wins by 2+
22%
FC Sion wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Luzern 1+ goals
80%
FC Luzern 2+ goals
48%
FC Luzern 3+ goals
22%
FC Sion 1+ goals
76%
FC Sion 2+ goals
41%
FC Sion 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC Luzern (draw refunded)
56%
FC Sion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Luzern at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.40 · 29 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Luzern attack 1.84 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Sion attack 1.44 + FC Luzern defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Luzern scores more
43%
level
24%
FC Sion scores more
33%

FC Luzern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Luzern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
L. ChipperfieldFC SionFC Sion · M
7.7

Match Events

3'
B. Freimann↳ M. Di Giusto
7'
Numa Lavanchy
23'
N. SowOwn goal
25'
Rilind Nivokazi
26'
Kreshnik Hajrizi
45+3'
Adrian Grbić
49'
B. KololliPenalty
57'
O. Kabwit← L. Villiger
61'
A. Grbic↳ P. Dorn
68'
Baltazar← A. Kabacalman
68'
T. Bouchlarhem← J. Lukembila
68'
D. Rrudhani← B. Kololli
72'
Pius Dorn
74'
S. Ottiger← M. Di Giusto
75'
Lucas Ferreira
77'
Theo Bouchlarhem
77'
Theo BouchlarhemCard upgrade
79'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi
79'
L. Chipperfield← K. Hajrizi
80'
W. Boteli↳ D. Rrudhani
86'
S. Karweina← A. Grbic
86'
L. Winkler← L. M. Silva Ferreira
90+4'
Jan Kronig
90'
L. Chipperfield↳ A. Racioppi

Possession

46%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
46%Possession54%
13Total Shots19
1.59Expected Goals (xG)2.11
9Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots19
3On Target4
3Off Target8
7Blocked7
9Inside Box15
4Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
359Total Passes409
288Accurate Passes348
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Super League: FC Luzern 3–3 FC Sion

FC Luzern and FC Sion drew 3-3 in Super League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: B. Freimann (3'), N. Sow (23' o.g.), B. Kololli (49' pen), A. Grbic (61'), W. Boteli (80'), L. Chipperfield (90').

FC Sion controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Swissporarena in Luzern.