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FC Sion vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
R. Nivokazi 80'
B. Kololli 60'
Y. Chouaref 42'
J. Lukembila 6'
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion42%
×Draw25%
FC Lugano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.56
FC Lugano
1.35

FC Sion creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.54
FC Lugano
1.47

allows per match

FC Sion
1.23
FC Lugano
1.57

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more
FC Lugano-0.34scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
67%
FC Sion or FC Lugano
75%
Draw or FC Lugano
58%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
21%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
79%
FC Sion 2+ goals
46%
FC Sion 3+ goals
21%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
74%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
39%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
56%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Lugano defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Lugano attack 1.47 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Sion scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Lugano scores more
33%

FC Sion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
J. LukembilaFC SionFC Sion · F
9.0

Match Events

6'
J. Lukembila↳ N. Hefti
32'
Uran Bislimi
42'
Y. Chouaref↳ N. Hefti
46'
L. Mai← Z. Brault-Guillard
52'
Rilind Nivokazi
54'
Kreshnik Hajrizi
59'
E. Pihlstrom← D. Dos Santos
60'
K. Behrens← U. Bislimi
60'
M. Bottani← R. Steffen
60'
B. Kololli↳ J. Lukembila
64'
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
66'
T. Bouchlarhem← Y. Chouaref
66'
L. Chipperfield← J. Lukembila
66'
T. Berdayes← B. Kololli
73'
A. Duville-Parsemain← G. Koutsias
75'
Kevin Behrens
75'
L. Diack← A. Kabacalman
80'
R. Nivokazi↳ T. Bouchlarhem
81'
W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi

Possession

34%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
34%Possession66%
12Total Shots17
1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.75
1Corners4
13Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots17
8On Target3
3Off Target10
1Blocked4
8Inside Box15
4Outside Box2
Passing
34%Possession66%
303Total Passes598
223Accurate Passes525
74%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Sion vs FC Lugano

FC Sion beat FC Lugano 4-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

Goals: J. Lukembila (6'), Y. Chouaref (42'), B. Kololli (60'), R. Nivokazi (80').

FC Lugano controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.