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FC Sion vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

FC Sion
FC Sion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
G. Diouf 63'
B. Kololli 3'
A. Grgic 13' (pen)
3/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Sion42%
×Draw25%
FC Lugano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sion
1.56
FC Lugano
1.35

FC Sion creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Sion
1.54
FC Lugano
1.47

allows per match

FC Sion
1.23
FC Lugano
1.57

finishing

FC Sion+0.40scores more
FC Lugano-0.34scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sion ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Sion or draw
67%
FC Sion or FC Lugano
75%
Draw or FC Lugano
58%

Winning margin

FC Sion wins by 2+
21%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Sion 1+ goals
79%
FC Sion 2+ goals
46%
FC Sion 3+ goals
21%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
74%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
39%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Sion (draw refunded)
56%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sion at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sion attack 1.54 + FC Lugano defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Lugano attack 1.47 + FC Sion defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Sion scores more
42%
level
25%
FC Lugano scores more
33%

FC Sion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Sion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70
B. KololliFC SionFC Sion · M
8.3

Match Events

3'
B. Kololli
10'
Federico Barba
13'
A. GrgicPenalty
21'
Milton Valenzuela
45'
Yanis Cimignani
46'
Roman Macek
53'
Noé Sow
55'
T. Bouchlarhem← L. Chipperfield
56'
I. Chouaref← A. Miranchuk
61'
Amir Saipi
63'
Ali KabacalmanMissed penalty
63'
G. Diouf↳ B. Kololli
64'
M. Bottani← Y. Cimignani
64'
U. Bislimi← Daniel Dos Santos
64'
G. Koutsias← K. Przybyłko
69'
H. Mahmoud← A. Grgic
80'
A. Arigoni← R. Macek
87'
Lars Lukas Mai
90+7'
Ylyas Chouaref
90'
Theo Bouchlarhem
90+6'
J. Kronig← A. Kabacalman

Possession

34%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

45%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
34%Possession66%
14Total Shots16
1.99Expected Goals (xG)1.86
4Corners7
12Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots16
6On Target2
4Off Target11
4Blocked3
9Inside Box11
5Outside Box5
Passing
34%Possession66%
243Total Passes475
168Accurate Passes396
69%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls13
4Yellow Cards5
1Offsides5

Super League: FC Sion 2–1 FC Lugano

FC Sion beat FC Lugano 2-1 in Super League on March 9, 2025.

Goals: B. Kololli (3'), A. Grgic (13' pen), G. Diouf (63').

FC Lugano controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.