FC Lugano 2–1 FC Sion: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Sion

K. Behrens 62'

R. Steffen 12'

A. Kabacalman 10' (pen)

3/4/2026

Super League · Round 28Stadio di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

FC Lugano42%

×Draw25%

FC Sion34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.36

FC Lugano

1.54

FC Sion

1.36

FC Lugano creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.44

1.28

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

FC Lugano

1.68

FC Sion

1.44

allows per match

FC Lugano

1.28

FC Sion

1.41

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

FC Lugano+0.10scores more

FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

FC Sion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

66%

FC Lugano or FC Sion

75%

Draw or FC Sion

58%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

21%

FC Sion wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

79%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

45%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

20%

FC Sion 1+ goals

74%

FC Sion 2+ goals

39%

FC Sion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

55%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.68 + FC Sion defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Sion attack 1.44 + FC Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Lugano scores more

42%

level

25%

FC Sion scores more

34%

FC Lugano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Mai

FC Lugano · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

A. KabacalmanPenalty

12'

R. Steffen

50'

Georgios Koutsias

52'

Franck Surdez

58'

K. Behrens← G. Koutsias

58'

M. Belhadj← A. Kendouci

59'

Y. Chouaref← F. Surdez

59'

L. Chipperfield← J. Lukembila

62'

K. Behrens↳ D. Dos Santos

72'

B. Kololli← T. Berdayes

73'

W. Boteli← R. Nivokazi

73'

A. Llukes← A. Kabacalman

78'

Numa Lavanchy

82'

Z. Brault-Guillard← R. Steffen

90+2'

Daniel Dos Santos Correia

90+4'

Joao Carbone← Y. Cimignani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots9

0.68Expected Goals (xG)1.29

2Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target2

3Off Target1

1Blocked6

3Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

454Total Passes386

389Accurate Passes322

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.31Goals Prevented-0.31

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2