FC Schaffhausen 0–4 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

FC Schaffhausen

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

FC Zurich

R. Dwamena 85', 67'

I. Kecojević 13'

D. Čavušević 1'

5/27/2017

Challenge League · Round 35LIPO Park Schaffhausen (Schaffhausen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Schaffhausen22%

×Draw22%

FC Zurich56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SchaffhausenExpected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.92

FC Schaffhausen

1.10

FC Zurich

1.92

FC Zurich creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

2.33

1.50

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

FC Schaffhausen

1.38

FC Zurich

2.33

allows per match

FC Schaffhausen

1.50

FC Zurich

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Schaffhausen+0.00on par

FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Schaffhausen ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Schaffhausen or draw

44%

FC Schaffhausen or FC Zurich

78%

Draw or FC Zurich

78%

Winning margin

FC Schaffhausen wins by 2+

8%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

FC Schaffhausen 1+ goals

67%

FC Schaffhausen 2+ goals

30%

FC Schaffhausen 3+ goals

10%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

85%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

57%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

FC Schaffhausen (draw refunded)

28%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Schaffhausen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Schaffhausen attack 1.38 + FC Zurich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

FC Zurich attack 2.33 + FC Schaffhausen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Schaffhausen scores more

22%

level

22%

FC Zurich scores more

56%

FC Zurich at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

13'

67'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff