FC Rostov 1–1 Dynamo: Result & Stats

FC Rostov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo

M. Mohebi 82'

D. Fomin 77'

3/2/2025

Premier League · Round 19Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Rostov28%

×Draw28%

Dynamo44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC RostovExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.31

FC Rostov

0.97

Dynamo

1.31

Dynamo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

0.79

creates per match

1.58

1.05

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

FC Rostov

0.79

Dynamo

1.58

allows per match

FC Rostov

1.05

Dynamo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw

56%

FC Rostov or Dynamo

72%

Draw or Dynamo

72%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+

10%

Dynamo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals

62%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

25%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

7%

Dynamo 1+ goals

73%

Dynamo 2+ goals

38%

Dynamo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

38%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 0.79 + Dynamo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dynamo attack 1.58 + FC Rostov defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Rostov scores more

28%

level

28%

Dynamo scores more

44%

Dynamo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

62

I. Komarov

FC Rostov · M

7.6

Match Events

8'

Ivan KomarovGoal cancelled

23'

E. Maouhoub← K. Tyukavin

64'

Y. Gladyshev← N. Ngamaleu

65'

El Mehdi Maouhoub

65'

Bitello← Arthur Gomes

65'

D. Fomin← L. Chávez

73'

E. Golenkov← Ronaldo

77'

D. Fomin↳ Y. Gladyshev

82'

K. Kuchaev← K. Shchetinin

82'

K. Bayramyan← D. Shantaliy

82'

M. Mohebi

90+4'

O. Sako← I. Vakhania

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCDynamo

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots8

3Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots8

4On Target3

13Off Target1

1Blocked4

15Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

340Total Passes320

221Accurate Passes203

65%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

7Offsides7