Dynamo 1–1 FC Rostov: Result & Stats

Dynamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Rostov

A. Kutitskiy 26'

N. Komlichenko 24'

11/1/2024

Premier League · Round 14VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dynamo46%

×Draw25%

FC Rostov29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DynamoExpected goals in this matchFC Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.22

Dynamo

1.58

FC Rostov

1.22

Dynamo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

2.16

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dynamo

2.16

FC Rostov

1.15

allows per match

Dynamo

1.29

FC Rostov

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

FC Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw

71%

Dynamo or FC Rostov

75%

Draw or FC Rostov

54%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+

23%

FC Rostov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals

79%

Dynamo 2+ goals

47%

Dynamo 3+ goals

21%

FC Rostov 1+ goals

70%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

34%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)

61%

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.16 + FC Rostov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Rostov attack 1.15 + Dynamo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo scores more

46%

level

25%

FC Rostov scores more

29%

Dynamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Yatimov

FC Rostov · G

7.7

Match Events

24'

N. Komlichenko

26'

A. Kutitskiy↳ N. Ngamaleu

71'

Ilya Vakhaniya

76'

E. Maouhoub← Arthur Gomes

80'

Ivan Komarov

80'

A. Sutormin← I. Vakhania

83'

E. Dasa← A. Kutitskiy

84'

Y. Gladyshev← N. Ngamaleu

84'

K. Shchetinin← I. Komarov

90+4'

K. Bayramyan← Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoFC

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots8

6Corners1

9Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots8

7On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked1

11Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

447Total Passes316

327Accurate Passes193

73%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

8Offsides4