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Dinamo Moscow vs FC Rostov — Premier League 2025

Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
I. Vakhania 79' (OG)
M. Mohebi 56', 42'
D. Glebov 32'
K. Shchetinin 22'
3/29/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Moscow45%
×Draw25%
FC Rostov30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moscow
1.59
FC Rostov
1.25

Dinamo Moscow creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moscow
2.18
FC Rostov
1.15

allows per match

Dinamo Moscow
1.36
FC Rostov
1.00

finishing

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par
FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moscow ↓

FC Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Moscow or draw
70%
Dinamo Moscow or FC Rostov
75%
Draw or FC Rostov
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
23%
FC Rostov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
21%
FC Rostov 1+ goals
71%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
36%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
60%
FC Rostov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moscow at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moscow attack 2.18 + FC Rostov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Rostov attack 1.15 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Moscow scores more
45%
level
25%
FC Rostov scores more
30%

Dinamo Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. MohebiFC RostovFC Rostov · F
9.5

Match Events

22'
K. Shchetinin
32'
D. Glebov↳ M. Mohebi
42'
M. Mohebi
46'
D. Skopintsev← S. Parshivlyuk
46'
M. Ngamaleu← D. Makarov
52'
Ronaldo
56'
M. Mohebi↳ K. Bayramyan
67'
D. Fomin← K. Tyukavin
67'
F. Smolov← L. Chávez
71'
I. Komarov← M. Mohebi
71'
N. Komlichenko← E. Golenkov
79'
I. VakhaniaOwn goal
82'
V. Grulev← E. Dasa
84'
Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu
84'
Ivan Komarov
90'
V. Melekhin← K. Bayramyan

Possession

55%Dinamo

Shots

16Dinamo

Pass accuracy

52%Dinamo

Statistics

DinamoFC
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots16
9Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots16
9On Target7
2Off Target6
5Blocked3
10Inside Box13
6Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
431Total Passes352
340Accurate Passes258
79%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
14Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Premier League: Dinamo Moscow 1–4 FC Rostov

FC Rostov beat Dinamo Moscow 4-1 in Premier League on March 29, 2024.

Goals: K. Shchetinin (22'), D. Glebov (32'), M. Mohebi (42', 56'), I. Vakhania (79' o.g.).

Dinamo Moscow controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.