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FC Rostov vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

FC Rostov
FC Rostov
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
11/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FC Rostov39%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moscow35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rostov
1.39
Dinamo Moscow
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Rostov
1.41
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

FC Rostov
1.18
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw
65%
FC Rostov or Dinamo Moscow
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
61%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals
75%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
40%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)
53%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.41 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + FC Rostov defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Rostov scores more
39%
level
26%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
35%

FC Rostov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Rostov 4–1 Dinamo Moscow

FC Rostov beat Dinamo Moscow 4-1 in Premier League on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Rostov Arena in Rostov-na-Donu.