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FC OSS vs Almere City FC — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
J. Hilterman 89' (pen)
R. van La Parra 80'
Álvaro Peña 61'
A. Limbombe 43', 32'
4/28/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 35Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC OSS36%
×Draw23%
Almere City FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.57
Almere City FC
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.65
Almere City FC
1.73

allows per match

FC OSS
1.58
Almere City FC
1.49

finishing

FC OSS+0.18scores more
Almere City FC+0.47scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
60%
FC OSS or Almere City FC
77%
Draw or Almere City FC
64%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
18%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
79%
FC OSS 2+ goals
46%
FC OSS 3+ goals
21%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
81%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
49%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
48%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.65 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Almere City FC attack 1.73 + FC OSS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC OSS scores more
36%
level
23%
Almere City FC scores more
40%

Almere City FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. LimbombeAlmere City FCAlmere City FC · F
8.9

Match Events

4'
Roshon van Eijma
32'
A. Limbombe↳ Pascu
43'
A. Limbombe↳ Pascu
57'
I. Pata← T. David
57'
K. Leidsman← B. van Hoeven
57'
J. Mukeh← D. van der Sluys
57'
J. Sanches← Ö. Gündüz
61'
Álvaro Peña↳ S. Resink
62'
I. Alhaft← S. Resink
62'
R. van La Parra← A. Limbombe
71'
J. Hilterman← Pascu
71'
M. Esajas← L. Duijvestijn
74'
Vasileios Pavlidis← T. van Leeuwen
75'
J. Jacobs← T. Barbet
80'
R. van La Parra
88'
Ilounga Pata
89'
J. HiltermanPenalty

Possession

40%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCAlmere
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots25
3Corners8
11Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots25
2On Target12
5Off Target9
5Blocked4
8Inside Box13
4Outside Box12
Passing
40%Possession60%
381Total Passes586
299Accurate Passes504
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: FC OSS vs Almere City FC

Almere City FC beat FC OSS 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Limbombe (32', 43'), Álvaro Peña (61'), R. van La Parra (80'), J. Hilterman (89' pen).

Almere City FC controlled possession (60%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.