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Almere City FC vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
Pascu 86'
H. Akujobi 54'
F. Mattoir 18'
8/12/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almere City FC48%
×Draw23%
FC OSS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.77
FC OSS
1.32

Almere City FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.99
FC OSS
1.19

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.45
FC OSS
1.54

finishing

Almere City FC+0.68scores more
FC OSS-0.36scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
71%
Almere City FC or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
52%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
26%
FC OSS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
83%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
53%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
26%
FC OSS 1+ goals
73%
FC OSS 2+ goals
38%
FC OSS 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
63%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.45 · 6 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.99 + FC OSS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC OSS attack 1.19 + Almere City FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almere City FC scores more
48%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
29%

Almere City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. BakkerAlmere City FCAlmere City FC · G
7.6

Match Events

3'
Roshon van Eijma
18'
F. Mattoir↳ S. Resink
44'
Dean van der Sluys
54'
H. Akujobi↳ B. van Hoeven
63'
N. Grootfaam← H. Akujobi
63'
L. Kromah← B. van Hoeven
63'
J. Sanches← R. Dekker
63'
R. Musaba← J. van der Sluijs
76'
N. Abdat← D. van der Sluys
82'
A. Allemeersch← J. Mathieu
82'
M. Hilderink← L. Piqué
83'
T. Wildeboer← J. Hilterman
83'
Pascu← L. Duijvestijn
86'
Pascu↳ T. Wildeboer
88'
Manel Royo← F. Mattoir
90+2'
Thomas Poll

Possession

50%Almere

Shots

11Almere

Pass accuracy

51%Almere

Statistics

AlmereFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots8
2Corners11
11Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target3
3Off Target4
4Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
351Total Passes347
264Accurate Passes251
75%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs FC OSS

Almere City FC beat FC OSS 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 12, 2022.

Goals: F. Mattoir (18'), H. Akujobi (54'), Pascu (86').

Almere City FC controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.