Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC OSS vs Almere City FC — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
J. Sanches 85'
R. van Eijma 81'
L. Duijvestijn 52' (pen)
M. Pouwels 39'
D. Post 18'
4/22/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 36Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC OSS36%
×Draw23%
Almere City FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.57
Almere City FC
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.65
Almere City FC
1.73

allows per match

FC OSS
1.58
Almere City FC
1.49

finishing

FC OSS+0.18scores more
Almere City FC+0.47scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
60%
FC OSS or Almere City FC
77%
Draw or Almere City FC
64%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
18%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
79%
FC OSS 2+ goals
46%
FC OSS 3+ goals
21%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
81%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
49%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
48%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.49 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.65 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.57

Almere City FC attack 1.73 + FC OSS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC OSS scores more
36%
level
23%
Almere City FC scores more
40%

Almere City FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. DuijvestijnAlmere City FCAlmere City FC · M
8.0

Match Events

18'
D. Post
39'
M. Pouwels↳ L. Duijvestijn
45'
G. Büttner← J. Mathieu
46'
K. Leidsman← G. Damen
52'
L. DuijvestijnPenalty
62'
B. van Hoeven← J. Puriel
62'
S. Resink← T. Receveur
72'
Joey Jacobs
73'
F. Hammouti← B. van Vlerken
75'
D. Guezen← R. van den Herik
81'
R. van Eijma↳ D. Guezen
85'
M. Maletić← L. Piqué
85'
J. Sanches↳ G. Büttner
86'
Yannick Leliendal
88'
M. Esajas← L. Duijvestijn

Possession

49%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCAlmere
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots15
2Corners4
8Fouls20
Shots
8Total Shots15
4On Target5
2Off Target5
2Blocked5
6Inside Box9
2Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
428Total Passes450
331Accurate Passes338
77%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls20
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: FC OSS 2–3 Almere City FC

Almere City FC beat FC OSS 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on April 22, 2022.

Goals: D. Post (18'), M. Pouwels (39'), L. Duijvestijn (52' pen), R. van Eijma (81'), J. Sanches (85').

Almere City FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.