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FC Orenburg vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo
Dynamo
M. Savelyev 90'
U. Babaev 90'
M. Osipenko 85' (pen)
E. Maouhoub 57'
9/21/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Luzhniki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Orenburg30%
×Draw27%
Dynamo43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.10
Dynamo
1.38

Dynamo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.06
Dynamo
1.54

allows per match

FC Orenburg
1.22
Dynamo
1.14

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
57%
FC Orenburg or Dynamo
73%
Draw or Dynamo
70%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
12%
Dynamo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
67%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
30%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
10%
Dynamo 1+ goals
75%
Dynamo 2+ goals
40%
Dynamo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
41%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.06 + Dynamo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Dynamo attack 1.54 + FC Orenburg defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
30%
level
27%
Dynamo scores more
43%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. SavelyevFC OrenburgFC Orenburg · F
8.2

Match Events

22'
Irakliy Kvekveskiri
28'
Daniil Fomin
45+2'
Anri Chichinadze
57'
E. Maouhoub
62'
N. Koserik← I. Ignatjev
62'
V. Kamilov← I. Kvekveskiri
62'
J. Thompson← E. Tsenov
67'
N. Marichal← A. Miranchuk
67'
U. Babaev← E. Maouhoub
74'
E. Gurluk← F. Moufi
77'
Juan Cáceres
82'
Ivan SergeevPenalty confirmed
85'
M. OsipenkoPenalty
86'
V. Bubanja← E. Bolotov
90+3'
D. Aleksandrov← D. Fomin
90+5'
V. Okishor← I. Sergeev
90+3'
A. Kutitsky← J. Caceres
90'
U. Babaev↳ Bitello
90'
M. Savelyev

Possession

50%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCDynamo
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots16
5Corners5
17Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots16
1On Target6
4Off Target5
4Blocked5
6Inside Box13
3Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
340Total Passes332
240Accurate Passes225
71%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Premier League: FC Orenburg 1–3 Dynamo

Dynamo beat FC Orenburg 3-1 in Premier League on September 21, 2025.

Goals: E. Maouhoub (57'), M. Osipenko (85' pen), U. Babaev (90'), M. Savelyev (90').

FC Orenburg controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.