FC Orenburg 2–2 Dynamo: Result & Stats

FC Orenburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dynamo

M. Pérez 90+5'

S. Saharkhizan 20'

E. Maouhoub 72' (pen)

M. Pérez 64' (OG)

9/1/2024

Premier League · Round 7Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Orenburg31%

×Draw27%

Dynamo43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OrenburgExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.39

FC Orenburg

1.13

Dynamo

1.39

Dynamo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 27 away

1.06

creates per match

1.56

1.22

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

FC Orenburg

1.06

Dynamo

1.56

allows per match

FC Orenburg

1.22

Dynamo

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw

57%

FC Orenburg or Dynamo

73%

Draw or Dynamo

69%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+

12%

Dynamo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals

68%

FC Orenburg 2+ goals

31%

FC Orenburg 3+ goals

11%

Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo 2+ goals

40%

Dynamo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)

42%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.06 + Dynamo defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dynamo attack 1.56 + FC Orenburg defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Orenburg scores more

31%

level

27%

Dynamo scores more

43%

Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Moskvichev

FC Orenburg · G

9.2

Match Events

20'

S. Saharkhizan↳ D. Khotulev

35'

Andrey Malykh

50'

Roberto Fernández

64'

Konstantin TyukavinMissed penalty

64'

M. PérezOwn goal

65'

E. Maouhoub← Y. Gladyshev

68'

D. Rybchinskiy← S. Oganesyan

71'

Ivan Bašić

72'

E. MaouhoubPenalty

81'

J. Thompson← I. Bašić

81'

J. Cuero← A. Malykh

81'

D. Makarov← J. Carrascal

89'

N. Marichal← D. Skopintsev

90+5'

M. Pérez↳ B. Mansilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCDynamo

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots20

3Corners6

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots20

5On Target9

6Off Target4

4Blocked7

10Inside Box13

5Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

399Total Passes357

331Accurate Passes280

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs Dynamo

FC Orenburg and Dynamo drew 2-2 in Premier League on September 1, 2024.

Goals: S. Saharkhizan (20'), M. Pérez (64' o.g., 90+5'), E. Maouhoub (72' pen).

FC Orenburg controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.

FC Orenburg vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs Dynamo