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Dynamo vs FC Orenburg — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
V. Okishor 90+1'
L. Chávez 67'
Bitello 60'
J. Carrascal 41', 38'
S. Saharkhizan 77'
3/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo62%
×Draw20%
FC Orenburg18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
2.21
FC Orenburg
1.12

Dynamo creates 97% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.18
FC Orenburg
0.88

allows per match

Dynamo
1.36
FC Orenburg
2.24

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
82%
Dynamo or FC Orenburg
80%
Draw or FC Orenburg
38%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
39%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
89%
Dynamo 2+ goals
65%
Dynamo 3+ goals
38%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
67%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
31%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
77%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.18 + FC Orenburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.21

FC Orenburg attack 0.88 + Dynamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dynamo scores more
62%
level
20%
FC Orenburg scores more
18%

Dynamo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
BitelloDynamoDynamo · M
8.7

Match Events

20'
Roberto Fernández
38'
J. Carrascal
41'
J. Carrascal↳ Y. Gladyshev
46'
N. Marichal← R. Fernández
58'
A. Kovalenko← D. Prokhin
60'
Bitello↳ D. Fomin
66'
N. Ngamaleu← D. Glebov
66'
D. Makarov← J. Carrascal
66'
S. Saharkhizan← D. Rybchinskiy
66'
J. Marín← E. Gürlük
67'
L. Chávez↳ Bitello
76'
Denis MakarovGoal cancelled
77'
D. Aleksandrov← Bitello
77'
V. Okishor← L. Chávez
77'
S. Saharkhizan↳ B. Mansilla
82'
A. Revazov← B. Mansilla
90+1'
V. Okishor↳ D. Skopintsev

Possession

55%Dynamo

Shots

22Dynamo

Pass accuracy

51%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoFC
Overview
55%Possession45%
22Total Shots11
6Corners5
13Fouls8
Shots
22Total Shots11
9On Target6
5Off Target3
8Blocked2
13Inside Box7
9Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
423Total Passes337
345Accurate Passes263
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

Premier League: Dynamo 5–1 FC Orenburg

Dynamo beat FC Orenburg 5-1 in Premier League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Carrascal (38', 41'), Bitello (60'), L. Chávez (67'), S. Saharkhizan (77'), V. Okishor (90+1').

Dynamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moskva.