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FC Minsk vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

FC Minsk
FC Minsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
4/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stadion Traktor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

FC Minsk31%
×Draw26%
Bate Borisov43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Minsk
1.19
Bate Borisov
1.46

Bate Borisov creates 23% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 125 away

creates per match

FC Minsk
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.50

allows per match

FC Minsk
1.43
Bate Borisov
0.95

finishing

FC Minsk+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Minsk ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Minsk or draw
57%
FC Minsk or Bate Borisov
74%
Draw or Bate Borisov
69%

Winning margin

FC Minsk wins by 2+
13%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Minsk 1+ goals
70%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
33%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
12%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
77%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
43%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Minsk (draw refunded)
42%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Minsk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Minsk attack 1.43 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bate Borisov attack 1.50 + FC Minsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Minsk scores more
31%
level
26%
Bate Borisov scores more
43%

Bate Borisov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Minsk 1–0 Bate Borisov

FC Minsk beat Bate Borisov 1-0 in Premier League on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Traktor in Minsk.