Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bate Borisov vs FC Minsk — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
8/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Bate Borisov53%
×Draw24%
FC Minsk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.71
FC Minsk
1.05

Bate Borisov creates 63% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 125 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.87
FC Minsk
1.02

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.08
FC Minsk
1.54

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

FC Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
77%
Bate Borisov or FC Minsk
76%
Draw or FC Minsk
47%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
29%
FC Minsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
82%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
51%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
24%
FC Minsk 1+ goals
65%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
28%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
69%
FC Minsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.87 + FC Minsk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Minsk attack 1.02 + Bate Borisov defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Minsk scores more
23%

Bate Borisov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs FC Minsk

FC Minsk beat Bate Borisov 1-0 in Premier League on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.