FC Minsk 1–1 Bate Borisov: Result & Stats

FC Minsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bate Borisov

2/21/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Minsk48%

×Draw29%

Bate Borisov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MinskExpected goals in this matchBate Borisov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.77

FC Minsk

1.25

Bate Borisov

0.77

FC Minsk creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Minsk

1.00

Bate Borisov

0.33

allows per match

FC Minsk

1.20

Bate Borisov

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Minsk+0.00on par

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Minsk ↓

Bate Borisov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Minsk or draw

77%

FC Minsk or Bate Borisov

71%

Draw or Bate Borisov

52%

Winning margin

FC Minsk wins by 2+

22%

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FC Minsk 1+ goals

71%

FC Minsk 2+ goals

36%

FC Minsk 3+ goals

13%

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

54%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

18%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FC Minsk (draw refunded)

68%

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Minsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Minsk attack 1.00 + Bate Borisov defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bate Borisov attack 0.33 + FC Minsk defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Minsk scores more

48%

level

29%

Bate Borisov scores more

23%

FC Minsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff