FC Midtjylland 2–0 Aalborg: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aalborg

8/3/2024

Superliga · Round 3MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

FC Midtjylland51%

×Draw23%

Aalborg26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.20

FC Midtjylland

1.79

Aalborg

1.20

FC Midtjylland creates 49% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 99 away

2.12

creates per match

1.32

1.07

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.12

Aalborg

1.32

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.07

Aalborg

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

74%

FC Midtjylland or Aalborg

77%

Draw or Aalborg

49%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

28%

Aalborg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

83%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

53%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

26%

Aalborg 1+ goals

70%

Aalborg 2+ goals

34%

Aalborg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

67%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.07 · 132 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.12 + Aalborg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Aalborg attack 1.32 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

51%

level

23%

Aalborg scores more

26%

FC Midtjylland at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff