Aalborg 1–4 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Aalborg

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

FC Midtjylland

3/9/2025

Superliga · Round 21Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Aalborg30%

×Draw25%

FC Midtjylland45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.57

Aalborg

1.23

FC Midtjylland

1.57

FC Midtjylland creates 28% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 133 away

1.27

creates per match

1.71

1.43

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Aalborg

1.27

FC Midtjylland

1.71

allows per match

Aalborg

1.43

FC Midtjylland

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

55%

Aalborg or FC Midtjylland

75%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

70%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

12%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

71%

Aalborg 2+ goals

35%

Aalborg 3+ goals

13%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

79%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

46%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

40%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 99 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 1.27 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Midtjylland attack 1.71 + Aalborg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aalborg scores more

30%

level

25%

FC Midtjylland scores more

45%

FC Midtjylland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff