FC Midtjylland 1–4 Aalborg: Result & Stats

FC Midtjylland

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Aalborg

1/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ikast Stadome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Midtjylland50%

×Draw21%

Aalborg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MidtjyllandExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.58

FC Midtjylland

2.10

Aalborg

1.58

FC Midtjylland creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.38

creates per match

1.91

1.25

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

FC Midtjylland

2.38

Aalborg

1.91

allows per match

FC Midtjylland

1.25

Aalborg

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw

71%

FC Midtjylland or Aalborg

79%

Draw or Aalborg

50%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

29%

Aalborg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

88%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

62%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

35%

Aalborg 1+ goals

79%

Aalborg 2+ goals

47%

Aalborg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

63%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 2.38 + Aalborg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalborg attack 1.91 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more

50%

level

21%

Aalborg scores more

29%

FC Midtjylland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff