FC Magdeburg 1–0 Preussen Munster: Result & Stats

FC Magdeburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preussen Munster

3/10/2017

League #80 · Round 26MDCC-Arena (Magdeburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Magdeburg70%

×Draw19%

Preussen Munster11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchPreussen Munster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.67

FC Magdeburg

2.06

Preussen Munster

0.67

FC Magdeburg creates 207% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

2.38

creates per match

0.83

0.50

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Magdeburg

2.38

Preussen Munster

0.83

allows per match

FC Magdeburg

0.50

Preussen Munster

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Preussen Munster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw

89%

FC Magdeburg or Preussen Munster

81%

Draw or Preussen Munster

30%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

44%

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

87%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

61%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

34%

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

49%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

15%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

86%

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 2.38 + Preussen Munster defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.06

Preussen Munster attack 0.83 + FC Magdeburg defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more

70%

level

19%

Preussen Munster scores more

11%

FC Magdeburg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff