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FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga 2018

FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
J. Ceka 67'
A. Condé 51', 38'
B. Atik 45' (pen)
5/28/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 34MDCC-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC Magdeburg53%
×Draw24%
Arminia Bielefeld24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Magdeburg
1.71
Arminia Bielefeld
1.06

FC Magdeburg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Magdeburg
1.64
Arminia Bielefeld
1.06

allows per match

FC Magdeburg
1.05
Arminia Bielefeld
1.78

finishing

FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less
Arminia Bielefeld+0.02on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Magdeburg ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Magdeburg or draw
76%
FC Magdeburg or Arminia Bielefeld
76%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld
47%

Winning margin

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
29%
Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
82%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
51%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
24%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
65%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
29%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
69%
Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.06 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Magdeburg scores more
53%
level
24%
Arminia Bielefeld scores more
24%

FC Magdeburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
A. CondéFC MagdeburgFC Magdeburg · M
8.3

Match Events

10'
Daniel Heber
20'
Amara Condé
28'
Jomaine Consbruch
38'
A. Condé↳ T. Ito
45'
B. AtikPenalty
46'
L. Bell Bell← M. El Hankouri
46'
T. Corbeanu← F. Klos
51'
A. Condé↳ S. Gnaka
55'
G. Bello← B. Oczipka
56'
O. Hüsing← A. Andrade
67'
J. Ceka↳ H. Bockhorn
69'
C. Piccini← A. Bittroff
69'
K. Brünker← J. Ceka
70'
L. Schuler← A. Condé
76'
M. Rzatkowski← S. Vasiliadis
76'
J. Serra← R. Hack
78'
M. Cacutalua← T. Ito

Possession

68%FC

Shots

16FC

Pass accuracy

54%FC

Statistics

FCArminia
Overview
68%Possession32%
16Total Shots6
7Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots6
8On Target2
2Off Target3
6Blocked1
10Inside Box1
6Outside Box5
Passing
68%Possession32%
565Total Passes261
489Accurate Passes194
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld

FC Magdeburg beat Arminia Bielefeld 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Condé (38', 51'), B. Atik (45' pen), J. Ceka (67').

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at MDCC-Arena in Magdeburg.