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Arminia Bielefeld vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
F. Klos 69'
P. Türpitz 85' (pen)
F. Lohkemper 45'
T. Perthel 33'
2/17/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Schüco-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld53%
×Draw22%
FC Magdeburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
2.04
FC Magdeburg
1.38

Arminia Bielefeld creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
2.14
FC Magdeburg
1.91

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
0.85
FC Magdeburg
1.95

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more
FC Magdeburg+0.01on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
74%
Arminia Bielefeld or FC Magdeburg
78%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
47%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
31%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
87%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
60%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
33%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
75%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
40%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
67%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Magdeburg attack 1.91 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
53%
level
22%
FC Magdeburg scores more
26%

Arminia Bielefeld at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
F. LohkemperFC MagdeburgFC Magdeburg · F
7.6

Match Events

28'
Brian Behrendt
31'
Julian Börner
33'
S. Salger← P. Weihrauch
33'
T. Perthel
45'
F. Lohkemper↳ J. Kirchhoff
58'
M. Costly← F. Lohkemper
64'
Marcel Costly
69'
F. Klos↳ F. Hartherz
77'
M. Niemeyer← T. Perthel
82'
T. Schütz← R. Yabo
85'
P. TürpitzPenalty
86'
Fabian Klos
88'
N. Butzen← P. Türpitz

Possession

49%Arminia

Shots

12Arminia

Pass accuracy

49%Arminia

Statistics

ArminiaFC
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots14
5Corners2
11Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots14
3On Target4
5Off Target5
4Blocked5
5Inside Box8
7Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
441Total Passes462
301Accurate Passes323
68%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides4

2. Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld 1–3 FC Magdeburg

FC Magdeburg beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 17, 2019.

Goals: T. Perthel (33'), F. Lohkemper (45'), F. Klos (69'), P. Türpitz (85' pen).

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Schüco-Arena in Bielefeld.