1. FC Magdeburg 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld

B. Boakye 88'

M. Bauer 32'

2/15/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 22Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg53%

×Draw24%

Arminia Bielefeld24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

1. FC Magdeburg

1.71

Arminia Bielefeld

1.06

1. FC Magdeburg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.64

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.64

Arminia Bielefeld

1.06

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.05

Arminia Bielefeld

1.78

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.31scores less

Arminia Bielefeld+0.02on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

76%

1. FC Magdeburg or Arminia Bielefeld

76%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

47%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

29%

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

82%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

51%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

24%

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

65%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

29%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

69%

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 12 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.64 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.06 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

53%

level

24%

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

24%

1. FC Magdeburg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Bauer

Arminia Bielefeld · D

8.5

Match Events

19'

Christopher Lannert

28'

Rayan Ghrieb

32'

M. Bauer↳ T. Handwerker

56'

Stefano Russo

64'

R. Tachie← R. Ghrieb

70'

B. Boakye← C. Lannert

71'

M. Mehlem← M. Worl

79'

Marcus Mathisen

80'

F. Michel← L. Ulrich

80'

S. Gnaka← D. Stalmach

80'

N. Sarenren Bazee← R. Uldrikis

80'

J. Grodowski← T. Momuluh

88'

B. Boakye↳ N. Sarenren Bazee

89'

M. Breunig← M. Zukowski

89'

P. Hercher← L. Musonda

90+1'

E. Yasar← M. Corboz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Arminia

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots14

1.59Expected Goals (xG)1.14

4Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots14

3On Target4

11Off Target3

5Blocked7

12Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

438Total Passes288

354Accurate Passes196

81%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.14Goals Prevented0.14

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld

Arminia Bielefeld beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 15, 2026.

Goals: M. Bauer (32'), B. Boakye (88').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.

1. FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Arminia Bielefeld