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FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
12/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Ozon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FC Krasnodar45%
×Draw26%
CSKA Moscow29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Krasnodar
1.49
CSKA Moscow
1.14

FC Krasnodar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

FC Krasnodar
0.93
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Krasnodar ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Krasnodar or draw
71%
FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow
74%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
55%

Winning margin

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
22%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
77%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
44%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
19%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
68%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
32%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
61%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Krasnodar attack 1.92 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + FC Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Krasnodar scores more
45%
level
26%
CSKA Moscow scores more
29%

FC Krasnodar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Krasnodar 3–2 CSKA Moscow

FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 3-2 in Premier League on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Ozon Arena in Krasnodar.