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CSKA Moscow vs FC Krasnodar — Cup 2019

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscowadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar
3/4/2026CupCup · Semi-finalsVEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CSKA Moscow48%
×Draw25%
FC Krasnodar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.54
FC Krasnodar
1.09

CSKA Moscow creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.65
FC Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.70
FC Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

FC Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
73%
CSKA Moscow or FC Krasnodar
75%
Draw or FC Krasnodar
52%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
24%
FC Krasnodar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
79%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
45%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
20%
FC Krasnodar 1+ goals
66%
FC Krasnodar 2+ goals
30%
FC Krasnodar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
64%
FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Krasnodar attack 1.48 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
48%
level
25%
FC Krasnodar scores more
27%

CSKA Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA Moscow 3 – 1 FC Krasnodar

CSKA Moscow beat FC Krasnodar 3-1 in Cup on March 4, 2026.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moscow.