CSKA Moscow 1–1 FC Krasnodar: Result & Stats

CSKA Moscow

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Krasnodar

8/31/2025

Premier League · Round 7VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

CSKA Moscow43%

×Draw25%

FC Krasnodar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA MoscowExpected goals in this matchFC Krasnodar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.26

CSKA Moscow

1.52

FC Krasnodar

1.26

CSKA Moscow creates 21% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 119 away

1.87

creates per match

1.61

0.90

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

CSKA Moscow

1.87

FC Krasnodar

1.61

allows per match

CSKA Moscow

0.90

FC Krasnodar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

FC Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

FC Krasnodar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw

68%

CSKA Moscow or FC Krasnodar

75%

Draw or FC Krasnodar

57%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

21%

FC Krasnodar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

78%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

45%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

20%

FC Krasnodar 1+ goals

72%

FC Krasnodar 2+ goals

36%

FC Krasnodar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

58%

FC Krasnodar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches

FC Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + FC Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Krasnodar attack 1.61 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more

43%

level

25%

FC Krasnodar scores more

32%

CSKA Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff