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FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
Preview
03:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
9/5/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7
Big match
39%
FC Juarez
model favours
39%24%38%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Juarez39%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.58
CF Pachuca
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.69
CF Pachuca
1.48

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.65
CF Pachuca
1.48

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
62%
FC Juarez or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
61%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
19%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
79%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
47%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
21%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
79%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
46%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
51%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.69 + CF Pachuca defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58

CF Pachuca attack 1.48 + FC Juarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Juarez scores more
39%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
38%

FC Juarez at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — FC Juarez play Attack-heavy, CF Pachuca Defensively solid
  • CF Pachuca outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
FC Juarez
Attack-heavy
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
46%Possession51%
79%Pass accuracy83%
15.4Shots15.9
2.45xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC JuarezCF Pachuca

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
FC Juarez
2
Draws
1
CF Pachuca
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
0–22–12–22–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Juarez
DWDW
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Match Preview

FC Juarez face CF Pachuca on September 5, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.