FC Juarez 2–2 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

FC Juarez

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

CF Pachuca

L. Rodriguez 26' (OG)

Guilherme Castilho 16'

J. Murillo 66' (OG)

Kenedy 20'

10/18/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FC Juarez38%

×Draw25%

CF Pachuca37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.45

FC Juarez

1.47

CF Pachuca

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.64

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.68

CF Pachuca

1.26

allows per match

FC Juarez

1.64

CF Pachuca

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

63%

FC Juarez or CF Pachuca

75%

Draw or CF Pachuca

62%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

18%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

77%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

43%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

18%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

77%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

42%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

51%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.68 + CF Pachuca defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

CF Pachuca attack 1.26 + FC Juarez defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Juarez scores more

38%

level

25%

CF Pachuca scores more

37%

FC Juarez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guilherme Castilho

FC Juarez · M

8.7

Match Events

16'

Guilherme Castilho

20'

Kenedy

26'

L. RodriguezOwn goal

29'

Rodolfo PizarroGoal confirmed

39'

Alejandro Mayorga

46'

V. Guzman← O. Idrissi

65'

Puma← R. Fulgencio

65'

C. Sanchez← L. Rodriguez

66'

J. MurilloOwn goal

73'

Carlos Moreno

78'

W. Carvalho← A. Bautista

78'

G. Togni← Kenedy

83'

Carlos Sánchez

85'

Jonathan Gonzalez

85'

D. Valoyes← Madson

85'

J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza← H. E. Martinez Yepez

85'

J. Cadiz← E. Valencia

89'

90+1'

90+6'

90+4'

90+1'

90+1'

90'

A. Zaldivar← O. Estupinan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCCF

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots8

4Corners5

7Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

315Total Passes517

243Accurate Passes443

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0