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FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Madson 45+3', 6'
S. Rondón 64'
John Kennedy 60'
3/1/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Juarez40%
×Draw24%
CF Pachuca36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.58
CF Pachuca
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.69
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.65
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
64%
FC Juarez or CF Pachuca
76%
Draw or CF Pachuca
60%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
20%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
79%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
47%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
21%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
78%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
44%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
52%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.69 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + FC Juarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Juarez scores more
40%
level
24%
CF Pachuca scores more
36%

FC Juarez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
MadsonFC JuarezFC Juarez · M
8.5

Match Events

6'
Madson
31'
Eduardo Bauermann
45+3'
Madson↳ D. García
46'
John Kennedy← A. González
46'
C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez
46'
O. Idrissi← E. Rodríguez
47'
Santiago Homenchenko
51'
Madson de Souza Silva
51'
Oussama Idrissi
52'
P. Pedraza← S. Homenchenko
60'
John Kennedy
62'
D. Campillo← D. Villalpando
64'
S. Rondón↳ C. Sánchez
70'
Bryan González
72'
G. Cabral← S. Hernández
78'
A. Hurtado← J. Gónzalez
87'
Jesús Murillo
87'
John Kennedy
87'
C. López← Madson

Possession

55%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCCF
Overview
55%Possession45%
14Total Shots11
2Corners7
12Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots11
5On Target2
5Off Target7
4Blocked2
7Inside Box5
7Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
417Total Passes338
344Accurate Passes262
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca

FC Juarez and CF Pachuca drew 2-2 in Liga MX on March 1, 2025.

Goals: Madson (6', 45+3'), John Kennedy (60'), S. Rondón (64').

FC Juarez controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.