CF Pachuca 0–1 FC Juarez: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Juarez

Ó. Estupiñán 63'

11/10/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CF Pachuca50%

×Draw24%

FC Juarez26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.18

CF Pachuca

1.73

FC Juarez

1.18

CF Pachuca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

1.30

1.05

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.50

FC Juarez

1.30

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.05

FC Juarez

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

74%

CF Pachuca or FC Juarez

76%

Draw or FC Juarez

50%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

27%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

82%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

52%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

25%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

69%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

33%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

66%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + FC Juarez defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Juarez attack 1.30 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

50%

level

24%

FC Juarez scores more

26%

CF Pachuca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

A. Delgado

FC Juarez · G

8.0

Match Events

28'

Pedro Pedraza

29'

E. López← R. Orquin

36'

Eder Lopez

52'

J. López← A. González

55'

Haret Ortega

56'

Aitor García← J. Rodríguez

56'

D. Villalpando← D. Valoyes

63'

Ó. Estupiñán↳ Aitor García

67'

Borja Bastón← S. Rondón

78'

A. Bautista← P. Pedraza

78'

S. Hernández← O. Idrissi

78'

A. Domínguez← O. González

78'

Á. Zaldívar← Ó. Estupiñán

78'

J. Gónzalez← Guilherme Castilho

88'

Daniel Alonso Aceves Patiño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots12

6Corners6

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target3

6Off Target5

2Blocked4

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

531Total Passes400

457Accurate Passes330

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1