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FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2018

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
CANC
00:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
4/13/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FC Juarez37%
×Draw26%
CF Pachuca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.35
CF Pachuca
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 150 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.27
CF Pachuca
1.32

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
CF Pachuca
1.43

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
63%
FC Juarez or CF Pachuca
74%
Draw or CF Pachuca
63%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
17%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
74%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
39%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
15%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
74%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
39%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
50%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.27 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Juarez scores more
37%
level
26%
CF Pachuca scores more
37%

FC Juarez at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Match Preview

FC Juarez face CF Pachuca on April 13, 2020 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Juarez host CF Pachuca at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.