FC Ingolstadt 04 4–0 SSV ULM 1846: Result & Stats

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

SSV ULM 1846

J. Kügel 79'

J. Mause 54'

D. Kopacz 45+1'

B. Kanurić 5'

9/30/2023

League #80 · Round 8Audi-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0465%

×Draw19%

SSV ULM 184616%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchSSV ULM 1846

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.04

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.30

SSV ULM 1846

1.04

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

2.11

creates per match

0.75

1.32

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

2.11

SSV ULM 1846

0.75

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.32

SSV ULM 1846

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

SSV ULM 1846 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

84%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or SSV ULM 1846

81%

Draw or SSV ULM 1846

35%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

42%

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

90%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

67%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

40%

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

65%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

28%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

80%

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

SSV ULM 1846 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.30

SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

65%

level

19%

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

16%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

20'

26'

43'

45+1'

D. Kopacz↳ P. Testroet

46'

50'

54'

57'

62'

62'

62'

69'

L. Guwara← B. Kanurić

69'

J. Kügel← P. Testroet

78'

A. Ludwig← B. Allgeier

78'

79'

82'

82'

83'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSSV

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots6

1Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots6

8On Target1

3Off Target4

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

League #80: FC Ingolstadt 04 4–0 SSV ULM 1846

FC Ingolstadt 04 beat SSV ULM 1846 4-0 in League #80 on September 30, 2023.

Goals: B. Kanurić (5'), D. Kopacz (45+1'), J. Mause (54'), J. Kügel (79').

SSV ULM 1846 controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV ULM 1846 — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

League #80: FC Ingolstadt 04 4–0 SSV ULM 1846