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FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Erzgebirge Aue — League #80 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
FT
3 – 5
HT: 3 – 1
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
M. Costly 36'
G. Christensen 13'
F. Carlsen 7'
J. Guttau 89', 53', 18'
R. Malone 69'
E. Weinhauer 63'
5/3/2026League #80League #80 · Round 36Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0449%
×Draw22%
Erzgebirge Aue29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Ingolstadt 04
2.01
Erzgebirge Aue
1.52

FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
2.11
Erzgebirge Aue
1.73

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.91

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw
71%
FC Ingolstadt 04 or Erzgebirge Aue
78%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue
51%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
28%
Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
87%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
59%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
32%
Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
78%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
45%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
63%
Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.01

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.73 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
49%
level
22%
Erzgebirge Aue scores more
29%

FC Ingolstadt 04 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. GuttauErzgebirge AueErzgebirge Aue · M
9.6

Match Events

7'
F. Carlsen↳ Y. Sturm
13'
G. Christensen↳ L. Rosenlocher
18'
J. Guttau↳ M. Bar
20'
E. Kehrer← D. Kaygin
36'
M. Costly
43'
Ryan Malone
49'
Gustav Christensen
53'
J. Guttau
58'
Tristan Zobel
63'
J. Gunther-Schmidt← L. Simnica
63'
E. Majetschak← J. Collins
63'
E. Weinhauer↳ T. Zobel
69'
R. Malone↳ A. Barylla
73'
M. Hoppe← G. Christensen
73'
O. Drakulic← Y. Sturm
74'
Emilio Kehrer
76'
R. Bornschein← M. Bar
76'
M. Schmid← E. Weinhauer
81'
E. Uhlmann← R. Malone
88'
M. Plath← F. Carlsen
88'
J. Maljojoki← M. Besuschkow
89'
J. Guttau↳ J. Gunther-Schmidt

Possession

56%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCErzgebirge
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots11
1.50Expected Goals (xG)1.47
2Corners2
9Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots11
7On Target7
2Off Target4
5Blocked0
11Inside Box9
3Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
489Total Passes365
413Accurate Passes305
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

League #80: FC Ingolstadt 04 3–5 Erzgebirge Aue

Erzgebirge Aue beat FC Ingolstadt 04 5-3 in League #80 on May 3, 2026.

Goals: F. Carlsen (7'), G. Christensen (13'), J. Guttau (18', 53', 89'), M. Costly (36'), E. Weinhauer (63'), R. Malone (69').

FC Ingolstadt 04 controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Audi Sportpark in Ingolstadt.