FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Erzgebirge Aue — League #80 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
FC Ingolstadt 0449%
Erzgebirge Aue29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Ingolstadt 04 creates 32% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches
Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 2.11 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.01
Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.73 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
FC Ingolstadt 04 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "FC Ingolstadt 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Erzgebirge Aue substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Hansa RostockFC Ingolstadt 04
Rot-Weiß Essen
VerlErzgebirge Aue
VfL Osnabrück
SSV Jahn Regensburg
SV Wehen
TSV 1860 München
FC Viktoria Köln
SSV Ulm 1846
Alemannia Aachen
Stuttgart II
MSV Duisburg
Havelse
Energie Cottbus
FC Saarbrücken
Hoffenheim II
FC Schweinfurt 05
Waldhof MannheimIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Ingolstadt 04 host Erzgebirge Aue on Saturday, 7 December 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #80 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Erzgebirge Aue
FC Ingolstadt 04 beat Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 in League #80 on December 7, 2024.
Goals: M. Besuschkow (48').
The match was played at Audi-Sportpark in Ingolstadt.