Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Erzgebirge Aue vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — League #80 2026

Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
J. Fabisch 79'
M. Stefaniak 48'
J. Scholz 90'
F. Carlsen 30'
12/7/2025League #80League #80 · Round 17Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue40%
×Draw26%
FC Ingolstadt 0434%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge Aue
1.40
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.27

Erzgebirge Aue creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue
1.36
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.28

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue
1.27
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.44

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue or draw
66%
Erzgebirge Aue or FC Ingolstadt 04
74%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
60%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
19%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
75%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
41%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
17%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
72%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
36%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
54%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.36 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.28 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Erzgebirge Aue scores more
40%
level
26%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
34%

Erzgebirge Aue at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
M. StefaniakErzgebirge AueErzgebirge Aue · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
F. Carlsen
33'
Julian Kugel
48'
M. Stefaniak↳ A. Barylla
60'
E. Uhlmann← A. Barylla
60'
J. Collins← M. Seiffert
60'
M. Schmid← M. Stefaniak
61'
L. Frode← E. Decker
79'
J. Fabisch↳ E. Uhlmann
80'
E. Weinhauer← M. Clausen
80'
J. Ehlers← R. Bornschein
84'
Y. Sturm← M. Hoppe
84'
O. Drakulic← M. Besuschkow
87'
Jamilu Collins
90+3'
J. Maljojoki← M. Costly
90'
J. Scholz

Possession

65%Erzgebirge

Shots

14Erzgebirge

Pass accuracy

54%Erzgebirge

Statistics

ErzgebirgeFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots8
1.71Expected Goals (xG)1.57
8Corners7
13Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots8
6On Target5
7Off Target2
1Blocked1
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
602Total Passes257
523Accurate Passes190
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

League #80: Erzgebirge Aue 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 04

Erzgebirge Aue and FC Ingolstadt 04 drew 2-2 in League #80 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: F. Carlsen (30'), M. Stefaniak (48'), J. Fabisch (79'), J. Scholz (90').

Erzgebirge Aue controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.