FC Ingolstadt 04 0–4 Borussia Dortmund

FC Ingolstadt 04

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund

P. Aubameyang 90+1'

S. Kagawa 84'

M. Reus 60' (pen)

M. Ginter 55'

8/23/2015

Bundesliga · Round 2Audi Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FC Ingolstadt 0435%

×Draw24%

Borussia Dortmund42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.63

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.47

Borussia Dortmund

1.63

Borussia Dortmund creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 111 away

1.60

creates per match

1.86

1.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.60

Borussia Dortmund

1.86

allows per match

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.40

Borussia Dortmund

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Ingolstadt 04 ↓

Borussia Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw

58%

FC Ingolstadt 04 or Borussia Dortmund

76%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

65%

Winning margin

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

16%

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

77%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

43%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

18%

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

80%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

48%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

45%

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.33 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.60 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.86 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

35%

level

24%

Borussia Dortmund scores more

42%

Borussia Dortmund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

M. Schmelzer

Borussia Dortmund · D

8.1

Match Events

9'

25'

29'

31'

37'

46'

55'

M. Ginter↳ H. Mkhitaryan

60'

M. ReusPenalty

61'

S. Lex← M. Hartmann

74'

M. Suttner← K. Engel

74'

J. Hofmann← H. Mkhitaryan

80'

A. Ramos← M. Reus

84'

S. Kagawa↳ J. Hofmann

86'

G. Castro← S. Kagawa

90+1'

P. Aubameyang↳ M. Ginter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBorussia

Overview

34%Possession66%

3Total Shots18

1Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

3Total Shots18

2On Target8

1Off Target7

0Blocked3

2Inside Box16

1Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

296Total Passes556

170Accurate Passes428

57%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3