Borussia Dortmund 1–0 FC Ingolstadt 04

Borussia Dortmund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Ingolstadt 04

P. Aubameyang 14'

3/17/2017

Bundesliga · Round 25Signal Iduna Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Borussia Dortmund62%

×Draw21%

FC Ingolstadt 0417%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia DortmundExpected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.93

Borussia Dortmund

1.98

FC Ingolstadt 04

0.93

Borussia Dortmund creates 113% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 12 away

2.71

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund

2.71

FC Ingolstadt 04

0.75

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund

1.11

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw

83%

Borussia Dortmund or FC Ingolstadt 04

79%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

38%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

37%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

86%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

59%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

31%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

61%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

24%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

78%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.11 · 110 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.71 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.75 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more

62%

level

21%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

17%

Borussia Dortmund at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Papastathopoulos

Borussia Dortmund · D

8.2

Match Events

14'

P. Aubameyang↳ M. Schmelzer

35'

Darío Lezcano

54'

Florent Hadergjonaj

56'

J. Weigl← Raphaël Guerreiro

75'

P. Groß← S. Kittel

77'

A. Schürrle← C. Pulisic

81'

Markus Suttner

83'

Mikel Merino← G. Castro

83'

M. Multhaup← A. Cohen

90'

Marcel Schmelzer

90'

L. Hinterseer← A. Morales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots14

4Corners2

12Fouls23

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target2

5Off Target8

3Blocked4

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

426Total Passes343

291Accurate Passes208

68%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls23

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4