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Borussia Dortmund vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — DFB Pokal 2018

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Ingolstadt 04
FC Ingolstadt 04
T. Hazard 81', 72'
10/26/2021DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundSignal-Iduna-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Borussia Dortmund67%
×Draw19%
FC Ingolstadt 0414%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund
2.25
FC Ingolstadt 04
0.92

Borussia Dortmund creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund
2.83
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.33

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund
0.50
FC Ingolstadt 04
1.67

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par
FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw
86%
Borussia Dortmund or FC Ingolstadt 04
81%
Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04
33%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
44%
FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
89%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
65%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
39%
FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals
60%
FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals
23%
FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
83%
FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.83 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.33 + Borussia Dortmund defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more
67%
level
19%
FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more
14%

Borussia Dortmund at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. BrandtBorussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund · F
8.9

Match Events

5'
Thomas Meunier
13'
Merlin Röhl
62'
Nils Röseler
71'
T. Hazard← T. Meunier
71'
M. Reus← S. Tigges
71'
F. Bilbija← F. Kaya
72'
T. Hazard↳ J. Brandt
81'
S. Kutschke← M. Stendera
81'
M. Neuberger← D. Linsmayer
81'
T. Hazard↳ J. Brandt
83'
M. Akanji← M. Hummels
87'
A. Knauff← M. Wolf
87'
F. Passlack← J. Brandt

Possession

83%Borussia

Shots

18Borussia

Pass accuracy

63%Borussia

Statistics

BorussiaFC
Overview
83%Possession17%
18Total Shots3
4Corners2
11Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots3
5On Target0
8Off Target2
5Blocked1
12Inside Box0
6Outside Box3
Passing
83%Possession17%
879Total Passes173
803Accurate Passes93
91%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Borussia Dortmund beat FC Ingolstadt 04 2-0 in DFB Pokal on October 26, 2021.

Goals: T. Hazard (72', 81').

Borussia Dortmund controlled possession (83%) and registered 18 shots to 3.

The match was played at Signal-Iduna-Park in Dortmund.