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FC Helsingor vs AB Copenhagen — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
Unknown 64', 59', 23'
Unknown 43', 34', 8'
3/28/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 20Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

FC Helsingor42%
×Draw24%
AB Copenhagen34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Helsingor
1.66
AB Copenhagen
1.48

FC Helsingor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

creates per match

FC Helsingor
1.93
AB Copenhagen
1.54

allows per match

FC Helsingor
1.41
AB Copenhagen
1.39

finishing

FC Helsingor+0.00on par
AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Helsingor ↓

AB Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Helsingor or draw
66%
FC Helsingor or AB Copenhagen
76%
Draw or AB Copenhagen
58%

Winning margin

FC Helsingor wins by 2+
22%
AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Helsingor 1+ goals
81%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
49%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
23%
AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
77%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
43%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
55%
AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Helsingor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Helsingor attack 1.93 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.66

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + FC Helsingor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Helsingor scores more
42%
level
24%
AB Copenhagen scores more
34%

FC Helsingor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
23'
34'
43'
43'
T. Nielsen
43'
T. Hageltorn
46'
F. Lindgaard← F. Lindgaard
49'
N. Ibsen
52'
M. Christensen
56'
R. Marcus← R. Marcus
56'
O. Drost← O. Drost
59'
60'
A. Jonasson← A. Koudelka
64'
74'
R. Brodersen
80'
O. Tembe← O. Tembe
80'
M. Nielsen← M. Nielsen
81'
R. Linden← R. Linden
87'
A. Hlynsson← S. Ilsoe
90+1'
P. Kristensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Helsingor vs AB Copenhagen

FC Helsingor and AB Copenhagen drew 3-3 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 28, 2025.

Goals: ? (8', 23', 34', 43', 59', 64').

The match was played at Helsingør Ny Stadion OPV in Helsingør.