AB Copenhagen 2–0 FC Helsingor: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Helsingor

O. Mullings 77'

C. Wagner 48'

8/16/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

AB Copenhagen47%

×Draw23%

FC Helsingor30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Helsingor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.37

AB Copenhagen

1.79

FC Helsingor

1.37

AB Copenhagen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 40 away

2.01

creates per match

1.48

1.26

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.01

FC Helsingor

1.48

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.26

FC Helsingor

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

FC Helsingor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

70%

AB Copenhagen or FC Helsingor

77%

Draw or FC Helsingor

53%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

26%

FC Helsingor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

83%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

53%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

26%

FC Helsingor 1+ goals

75%

FC Helsingor 2+ goals

40%

FC Helsingor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

62%

FC Helsingor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.01 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

47%

level

23%

FC Helsingor scores more

30%

AB Copenhagen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Kassekar

19'

M. Ramkilde

33'

M. Brund

35'

Nani

38'

Y. Liesdek

46'

M. Ramkilde← C. Wagner

46'

Y. Liesdek← F. Lindgaard

47'

D. Kassekar

47'

D. Kassekar

48'

C. Wagner

60'

M. Brund← P. Kristensen

64'

T. Augustinus-Jensen← T. Augustinus-Jensen

72'

O. Drost← R. Linden

72'

N. Bagger← N. Bagger

77'

O. Mullings

81'

O. Mullings← F. Dzelili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff