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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Preview
15:00
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
9/12/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadion Spartak
Big match
60%
ML Vitebsk
model favours
17%23%60%

ML Vitebsk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev17%
×Draw23%
ML Vitebsk60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.81
ML Vitebsk
1.75

ML Vitebsk creates 116% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.87
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.58
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
40%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or ML Vitebsk
77%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
83%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
5%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
56%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
19%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
5%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
83%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
52%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
22%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.87 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
17%
level
23%
ML Vitebsk scores more
60%

ML Vitebsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 36% of ML Vitebsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • FC Dnepr Mogilev sit 13, ML Vitebsk 2 in the table
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Mogilev
LLWLL
Vitebsk
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Dnepr Mogilev host ML Vitebsk

September 12, 2026: FC Dnepr Mogilev take on ML Vitebsk in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Dnepr Mogilev host ML Vitebsk at Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.