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FC Botosani vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2026

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
Z. Mitrov 84'
S. Mailat 45'
S. Bodisteanu 18'
A. Bettaieb 83'
8/11/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 5Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FC Botosani43%
×Draw28%
Arges Pitesti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.31
Arges Pitesti
1.02

FC Botosani creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.41
Arges Pitesti
0.94

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.10
Arges Pitesti
1.22

finishing

FC Botosani+0.11scores more
Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
71%
FC Botosani or Arges Pitesti
72%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
57%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
20%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
73%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
38%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
14%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
64%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
27%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
60%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 25 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.41 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + FC Botosani defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Botosani scores more
43%
level
28%
Arges Pitesti scores more
29%

FC Botosani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Z. MitrovFC BotosaniFC Botosani · M
8.3

Match Events

18'
S. Bodisteanu↳ G. Cimpanu
45'
S. Mailat↳ E. Papa
46'
Z. Mitrov← S. Mailat
46'
A. Bettaieb← R. Matos
46'
Y. Pirvu← I. Radescu
46'
V. Rata← Garutti
46'
M. Briceag← L. Sadriu
52'
Yanis Pirvu
70'
Aldair← E. Papa
74'
R. Cret← M. Pavlovic
74'
H. Ongenda← S. Bodisteanu
75'
N. Heras← R. Moldoveanu
81'
Giannis Anestis
83'
A. Bettaieb
84'
Z. Mitrov↳ A. Dumiter
86'
Narcis Cosmin Ilas
87'
M. Kovtalyuk← A. Dumiter

Possession

50%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCArges
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots16
1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.87
4Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots16
7On Target4
5Off Target9
2Blocked3
8Inside Box12
6Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
276Total Passes271
163Accurate Passes175
59%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Liga I: FC Botosani 3–1 Arges Pitesti

FC Botosani beat Arges Pitesti 3-1 in Liga I on August 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Bodisteanu (18'), S. Mailat (45'), A. Bettaieb (83'), Z. Mitrov (84').

FC Botosani controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botosani.